China electrolytic water to hydrogen industry market development prospects in 2023
At present, more and more central state-owned enterprises, listed companies, hydrogen energy companies, social capital and foreign companies are aiming at the electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment market to start in-depth layout. An invisible war is being fought in the field of electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment. Electrolytic water hydrogen production is an important development direction in the future. Electrolytic water hydrogen production has the advantages of no pollutant and greenhouse gas emission in the process of production and high purity of hydrogen. From the perspective of the production cost, the fossil energy hydrogen production is about 10 RMB/kg, the industrial by-product hydrogen is about 21 RMB/kg, and the electrolytic water hydrogen production is about 30 RMB/kg.
The hydrogen production from electrolysis water has great sustainability advantages. Under the background of "carbon neutral, carbon peak" in China, the commercialization of hydrogen energy is becoming a hot spot in the market. The key to the cost of hydrogen production from electrolysis water is the energy consumption problem. On the one hand, the development of PEM and SOEC technology can reduce the energy consumption in the electrolysis process, and on the other hand, the development of photovoltaic and wind power can be relied on to produce hydrogen at low cost.
It is expected that within 5-10 years, the cost of hydrogen production from electrolytic water will be reduced to within 20 RMB/kg, driven by two blocks, "the significant decrease in the cost of renewable energy such as photovoltaic and wind power" and "the cost of electrolyzer equipment will be reduced by 60%-80% by 2030 with technological progress and scale up. 80% , electricity consumption and operation and maintenance costs of electrolytic water hydrogen production system are reduced." Industry insiders point out that, at present, alkaline electrolyzer has lower cost, better economy and higher market share than PEM electrolyzer. As the fuel cell technology continues to mature, the cost and market share of PEM electrolyzer will gradually increase to near parity with alkaline electrolyzer, and will be applied in PV and wind power according to their respective adaptability with renewable energy power systems.
The different characteristics of electrolytic water technology, photolytic water and thermochemical hydrogen production: electrolytic water technology is mature, simple equipment, pollution-free, and the resulting hydrogen has high purity and low impurity content, which is suitable for various occasions; the disadvantage is high energy consumption and high cost of hydrogen production; the current difficulty of photolytic water technology is catalyst development; the thermochemical cycle hydrogen production system is more complicated, but the efficiency of hydrogen production is higher, and the utilization efficiency is higher when combined with renewable energy. In alkaline electrolytic water technology and equipment manufacturing, China's technology level is similar to that of foreign countries, and has the ability of equipment manufacturing and process integration with completely independent intellectual property rights. In terms of PEM hydrogen production technology, China is still in the preliminary stage of R&D towards industrialization.
According to the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, China's hydrogen demand is expected to reach 35 million tons by 2030, accounting for 5% of the end-use energy system. By 2050, hydrogen energy will account for at least 10% of the end-use energy system in China, and the demand for hydrogen will be close to 60 million tons, which can reduce about 700 million tons of carbon dioxide and the annual output value of the industry chain will be about 12 trillion yuan.
Among them, 24.58 million tons of hydrogen will be used in the transportation sector, accounting for 19% of the energy consumption in this sector, which is equivalent to the reduction of 83.57 million tons of crude oil or 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas; 33.7 million tons of hydrogen will be used in the industrial sector, and 1.1 million tons of hydrogen will be used in the construction and other sectors, which is equivalent to the reduction of 170 million tons of standard coal. The data show that China's hydrogen demand will reach nearly 60 million tons in 2050 in a neutral scenario, with the main increment coming from fuel cell vehicles for transportation. By 2030, China's hydrogen demand will reach 35 million tons/year, with a capacity gap of about 10 million tons/year in electrolytic water hydrogen production industry; by 2050, China's hydrogen demand will reach 60 million tons/year, of which 24.58 million tons/year will be for transportation, with a capacity gap of about 25 million tons/year.
In March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly released the Medium and Long-term Plan for Hydrogen Energy Industry Development (2021-2035), which aims to build a hydrogen energy industry with the following objectives The argon energy supply system is mainly based on industrial by-product argon and hydrogen production from renewable energy sources, and the power development of the coupled power generation and argon production system with scenery complementarity will contribute to the realization of the "double carbon" goal in China.